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Presidential Predictions

The results are in: Lehigh University faculty members (well, three who shared their predications) forecast an Obama win.

Brian Pinaire, associate professor of political science, has been making presidential election picks for more than 20 years. He shared his predications on his blog, forecasting Obama and Romney victories by state with one-word explanations. Pinaire also predicted the winner of every open U.S. Senate seat and the U.S. House of Representatives as a whole.

His presidential prediction: Obama, 303. Romney, 235. One word explanation: Democracy.

If he is right, Pinaire said he will stand by his picks. If he is wrong, he will disavow them. “You can call it flip-flopping. I call it politicking. No one said democracy was a logical form of government – just the best of the worst options available,” he said.

Follow Pinaire's election results musings on his blog and on Twitter: @impoliticker.

Coincidentally, Amardeep Singh, associate professor of English, made the same prediction: an Obama win with 303 votes in the Electoral College and Romney, 235.

“Based on the current polling, Obama should win most swing states except Florida and North Carolina,” Singh said.

He predicts the popular vote to be much closer: 51 percent Obama, and 49 percent Romney. “The possibility of a split between the Electoral College and popular vote seems like a real one, especially in light of Hurricane Sandy,” Singh said. “There may be lower turnout in the ‘blue’ states of the Northeast affected by the hurricane, while the ‘deep red’ states of the South will remain unaffected.

Follow Singh's commentary on Twitter at @Electrostani and on his blog.

Saladin Ambar, assistant professor of political science, is standing by the predication he made six months ago: an Obama win.

“It seems evident to me that President Obama will win the election on the order of 51 percent to 49 percent in the popular vote, while winning more than 300 Electoral College votes,” Ambar said. “The real truth about this election is that it’s been predictability dull as far as meaningful changes in the battleground states.”

Follow Ambar's election results commentary on Twitter at @DinAmbar.

 

Story by Sally Gilotti

Posted on Tuesday, November 06, 2012

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